The theoretical model of financial fragility and exchange rate regime concludes that the combination of flexible exchange rate regime and final loaner can avoid the banking crisis. Finally, we suggest that RMB exchange rate still has not got the conditions to be full floated, since the economic shock is mainly from monetary shock in China, moreover the negative correlation between monetary shock and real shock is not prominent.
本文最终得出政策建议：由于我国面临的经济冲击以货币冲击为主，我国的货币冲击与实际冲击负相关性不显著，人民币汇率制度不具备完全自由浮动的条件；又由于我国政府非常有动力提高产出水平，人民币应采取固定汇率制度，并且比较现实的选择还是钉住美元的汇率制度。
For Japan, it is better to have independent of monetary policy and exchange rate policy as shock absorption to stabilize economy.
故对日本来说，拥有独立的货币政策，作为应对国外经济冲击的反应工具，对稳定国内经济是比较有利的。
Later, scholars did sophisticated researches on SVAR, and used them to anglicize real shock and monetary shock`s transition mechanism.
此后，人们对SVAR进行了深入的研究，并广泛用于分析实际冲击和货币冲击的传导机制。
It is assumed that the shock to the federal funds rate represents an unanticipated change in monetary policy.
假设联储基金利率的扰动代表了货币政策的一个未预料到的变化。
Moreover, the response of exchange rate first appreciates and then depreciates after a positive monetary shock.
在冲击反应图中可以看出，当产生紧缩性货币政策冲击时，对工业生产指数是持续负向的影响。
Another economic shock could shift these economies into deflation, with all the attendant difficulties of trying to make monetary policy bite in a world of post-bubble deleveraging.
再来一场经济危机就可能让这些经济体陷入通缩，加上试图在后泡沫时期的去杠杆化世界中让货币政策发挥效力的种种困难。
Our empirical results indicate that the shock in the central bank monetary policy represented by the legal deposit reserve rate and benchmark deposit can trigger the stock market impact of short-term fluctuation.
研究结果表明，以法定存款准备金率与存款基准利率为代表的中央银行货币政策的冲击能够引发股票市场短期条件波动。
Investment Liquidity Shock and Chinese Business Cycle & How Well Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Economy?
投资流动性冲击与中国经济波动&货币政策能稳定经济吗？
The context of economic globalization has caused tremendous shock to the monetary policy in our country, such as the massive influx of short-term capital and the huge trade surplus.
市场化和经济全球化背景下出现的问题给我国货币政策造成了巨大的冲击，其中大规模的短期资本涌入、加之巨额贸易顺差，使得中国的国际收支双顺差。
By estimating and testing the structural VAR model, we find that the monetary shock, supply shock and price shock have significant and persistent effects on the short term interest rates, but have no significant effects on long term interest rates.
文章通过估计和检验结构VAR模型，发现货币冲击、供给冲击和价格冲击都对短期利率产生了持续显著的影响，而对长期利率则没有显著作用效果。
The second question is how to run monetary policy when a large commodity price shock is under way.
第二个问题是，在严重的大宗商品价格冲击依然存在的情况下，如何实施货币政策。
And the non-monetary factors include financial system credit contraction, external demand shock, and the real economy structural factors.
其中，非货币因素包括金融系统信用收缩、外部需求冲击以及实体经济结构性因素。
Using the data of sample period (1994-2002), the paper explores the shock of monetary policy on money stock by constructing money supply function analysis and the practice of policy operation.
文章以1994～2002年为样本区间，通过构造货币供应函数和对货币政策操作实践的分析，考察货币政策操作本身对货币存量的冲击。
Unreconstructed monetarists and those who think the debt crisis was a random shock that has passed will not be persuaded, but for the rest of us, the monetary policy debate should be guided by three principles.
顽固的货币主义者，以及那些认为债务危机是一场已经过去的随机冲击的人士，是不会被说服的。但对我们剩下的人来说，有关货币政策的辩论应该以三条原则为指导。
In the face of a less severe shock, monetary policy could take up the slack.
如果危机的情形不那么严重，我们或许能通过货币政策进行补救。
This article gets the main error of real exchange rate by the nominal and demand shock through variance decomposition, which is accordance with the conclusion gotten by independent floating foreign exchange rate institution. But the contribution of nominal impact is comparatively high, so we conclude the independence of our monetary policy is impacted by the exchange institution and accordingly give some reform measures.
由方差分解得到实际汇率的主要预测误差是由名义冲击和需求冲击引起的，这与独立浮动汇率制度下的汇率得到的结论一致，但在我国名义冲击的贡献率相对较高，由此得出我国货币政策独立性受汇率制的的影响的结论，从而提出当前汇率制度改革的具体措施。
This article selects 1994`s and 2004`s real exchange rate、comparative productivity、relative price to set up Structural Vector Autoregression Model, to find out the supply、demand and nominal shock on real exchange rate through impulse response function. The result shows that positive demand impact will ascend the real exchange, depreciates RMB and then gives some policy advice. Secondly, through random shock function this article draws conclusions that when RMB is shocked by the same supply、demand or nominal factors, the change of real exchange rate will maximize at the nominal shock. Then, through spotting analysis approach on the 1997`s Asian Financial Crisis. This article gets the main error of real exchange rate by the nominal and demand shock through variance decomposition, which is accordance with the conclusion gotten by independent floating foreign exchange rate institution. But the contribution of nominal impact is comparatively high, so we conclude the independence of our monetary policy is impacted by the exchange institution and accordingly give some reform measures.
本文选取1994年至2004年的实际汇率、相对生产力、相对价格三个变量，建立结构向量自回归模型，并在此基础上通过脉冲响应函数分析得到供给冲击、需求冲击和名义冲击对实际汇率的影响，并发现正向需求冲击会造成实际汇率的上升，人民币的贬值，由此联系我国目前内需不足的现状，从需求的角度提出缓解人民币升值压力的政策建议；通过任意量冲击函数本文得到人民币受到等量的供给冲击、需求冲击和名义冲击作用时，在名义冲下实际汇率变化最大；用定点冲击的方法来分析1997年亚洲金融危机对实际汇率的影响；由方差分解得到实际汇率的主要预测误差是由名义冲击和需求冲击引起的，这与独立浮动汇率制度下的汇率得到的结论一致，但在我国名义冲击的贡献率相对较高，由此得出我国货币政策独立性受汇率制的的影响的结论，从而提出当前汇率制度改革的具体措施。
All forecasters, including the International Monetary Fund, have been surprised by the profound impact of this shock.
所有预测者，包括国际货币基金组织（imf），都对这场冲击的深远影响感到惊讶。